A few thoughts on Edmonton Oilers past, present and future

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It’s taken a few days to come to terms with the Edmonton Oilers’ shocking four-game ouster from the 2021 Stanley Cup playoffs, a process that is far from complete for those many among us who make a deep emotional investment in the local NHL club’s fortunes. But enough time has passed to decompress, stuff those feelings back into the closet for yet another summer and take a (relatively) dispassionate overview of the big picture. What happened? And what happens next?

The Oilers were swept for the first time this century, which is a less impressive feat than it sounds given how often the locals have missed the post-season altogether these past couple of decades. Last time it happened was under somewhat similar circumstances, when they lost a quartet of one-goal games to Dallas Stars in 1999. 2-1. 3-2. 3-2. 3-2 yet again, but in triple overtime.

That final encounter, decided by a Sergei Zubov point shot that bounced in off Joe Nieuwendyk’s shin pad after 57:34 of overtime, remains the longest game in Oilers’ history. Monday’s defeat after 46:52 of extra time ranks as the third longest, with a happier memory, The Petr Klima Game, sandwiched between at 55:13 of do-or-die time.

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But 1999 was different in that the Stars were heavy favourites, indeed that first round sweep of a game but overmatched opponent served as a springboard to a Stanley Cup triumph. The Stars had already won the Presidents’ Trophy, finishing the season 36 points ahead of Edmonton while rolling through the season series with 3 wins 0 losses, and 1 tie (remember those?). So the playoff outcome was not even remotely a surprise, even as the Oilers likely deserved to win at least one game in the process. But the Stars had better top-end players, better goaltending, greater depth.

2021 is so much different in that the current Oilers, led by the league’s top scoring tandem of Hart Trophy winners Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, started the series on their own ice as a fairly strong favourite. They had finished 9 points ahead of the Winnipeg Jets, largely by virtue of winning the season series 7 games to 2 including the last 6 in a row. But come the playoffs, that script was flipped entirely on its ear. So the comparison of expectations to actual outcomes is vastly more disappointing this time around.

A deeper source of frustration is the lack of visible progress year over year. Sure, the Oilers had a slightly better regular season than in 2019-20, going from 12th place in the overall standings all the way up to 11th — albeit in a vastly changed NHL featuring zero interdivisional play. The good news is that they consolidated themselves as a playoff calibre team, making the post-season dance two years in a row for the first time since all they way back in 2000 and 2001.

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But once they got there, crushing disappointment, also for the second year in a row. Edmonton has won just 1 of 8 postseason games in the Ken Holland/Dave Tippett era, losing the last 6 in a row. Sure, they were all essentially 1-goal games, including the last 3 in a row going to overtime, but when push came to shove the Oilers were unable to produce a goal, or if you prefer, a save. Twice they led after 40 minutes, twice they were tied, but in 140 minutes and 11 seconds of third period and overtime play they were outscored by a ghastly 10 goals to 1. Ugh.

For Oilers fans of a certain vintage, the template for year-over-year progress was established at the other end of the club’s 42-year NHL history. Consider this sequence:

  • 1979-80: Late season surge to earn the 16th and last playoff spot (in a 21-team league, mind), followed by a quick ouster at the hands of the league’s first-overall team.
  • 1980-81: A slightly smoother road to 14th overall, but a stunning opening round victory over one NHL powerhouse and a hard-fought, 6-game loss to the defending, soon to be repeating champs.
  • 1981-82: A massive surge in the regular season to 2nd overall, then a massive setback in the unfamiliar role of playoff favourites.
  • 1982-83: Continued success in the regular season (3rd overall), then a surge through three playoff rounds before falling to a dynasty in the Stanley Cup Finals.
  • 1983-84: A romp to 1st overall, then to the Stanley Cup, slaying the dragon in the process.
  • 1984-85: A slightly lowered focus on regular season success (2nd overall), but a record-breaking drive through the playoffs to defend the title.

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Six years into the McDavid Era, the Oilers have but a single playoff series win. At one point they spun their wheels outside the playoffs two straight years, followed by two consecutive rapid ousters. Progress has indeed been made, but haltingly.

An optimist — which I try to be, most of the time — will point out that the Oilers played a lot better in the playoffs than the outcomes suggested. I made the same case in the equivalent post last season under the headline Tale of the tape suggests Oilers may have deserved a better fate vs Blackhawks, pointing out how the Oil held the edge in shot attempts, shots, scoring chances, etc. Everything but goals.

This year? More of the same, only much more so. This, adapted from the series summary at naturalstattrick.com, suggests that the Oilers had the all-situations edge in play in four out of four games, producing north of 50% in every single category in every single game, except for the crucially-important one at far right.

Such analytical methodology speaks to probabilities, not actual outcomes, which are measured in 1’s and 0’s rather than fractions. The “fancy stats” also don’t account for three crucial elements: goaltending, shooting skill, and puck luck. That right-most column supports the eyeball observation that the Jets got the better of all three. (And don’t get me started on a fourth key element, see-no-evil officiating.)

Winnipeg also had an advantage of two Connors to one, with Connor Hellebuyck flashing his Vezina Trophy chops between the pipes while Kyle Connor scored the series-winner in triple OT, after making the key pass that sent the game to extra time in the first place.

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As for Edmonton’s Connor, McDavid, he started the series on a separate line from Draisaitl. That was a formula that had worked through the season series, when the duo played apart from each other in ~75% of their 5v5 minutes vs. the Jets. But that plan changed in the third period of Game 1, and Tippett never reverted back to “Plan A” the entire rest of the way despite indifferent results. In the end the two had played just ~20% of their 5v5 time apart. Winnipeg coach Paul Maurice was three deep in strong centres, using a combination of Mark Scheifele (53 minutes) and Adam Lowry (49) against McDavid-Draisaitl while freeing up Paul Stastny to do considerable damage against Edmonton’s less-than-imposing bottom nine. Advantage: Maurice.

All of which left Oil Country in an unhappy state, facing yet another off-season that will be longer than any of us hoped or dare I even say expected. Sure there is hockey remaining to be played, for those keen on watching reruns of the 2013 post-lockout outdoor classic of Team Hall vs. Team Eberle at Hawrelak Park. Or of seeing Cam Talbot pitching clutch shutouts for another NHL team, or of Pat Maroon gunning for his third straight Stanley Cup. Alas, none of that hockey will involve the current members of your Edmonton Oilers.

Recent days have seen the exit interviews of players, coach, manager, all reflecting back on what was and what might have been, and looking ahead to a future that can best be described in meteorological terms: “a mix of sun and cloud”. McDavid and Draisaitl both kiboshed any talk that somehow they might want out of Edmonton while only a fraction of the way into their mega-contracts, proving that neither of them thinks the way that pundits and critics in other markets might project. But as Draisaitl indicated, it’s go time. This group doesn’t have five more years to make the next step.

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For his part McDavid spoke positively of the core leadership group of himself, Draisaitl, Darnell Nurse, and pending UFA’s Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Adam Larsson. Holland spoke more directly of his intentions to re-sign netminder Mike Smith and depth grinder Devin Shore than he did of RNH and Larsson. Those latter negotiations will of course be more delicate, and one has to respect the notion that the voluble GM might be pursuing the time-honoured tactic of “under-promise but over-deliver”. Let’s hope so.

There will be plenty of times in the coming days, weeks, and (sigh) months ahead to go over Holland’s options leading to the Seattle expansion draft, NHL draft, and free agency period, all of them clustered in the latter part of July. Many of them involve internal decisions on expiring contracts here in Edmonton, from Nugent-Hopkins, Larsson and Smith to Tyson Barrie, Dmitry Kulikov, Shore and more. There will be consideration given to buying out the remaining year/s of big ticket pacts like James Neal and Mikko Koskinen. We will zero in on the pros and cons of each case here at the Cult of Hockey, which should still leave plenty of time (sigh) to discuss outside free-agent options from Tomas Tatar, Mike Hoffman and Blake Coleman to Ryan Getzlaf, Brandon Sutter and Jamie Oleksiak.

Of course rumours on all of this will be ongoing, such as the following from NHL insider Elliotte Friedman on Calgary radio earlier today:

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Let the games begin. Now that the games have ended.

Recently at the Cult of Hockey

STAPLES: Oilers shouldn’t bring back Koskinen, say NHL insiders

McCURDY: Holland wants to bring back Mike Smith

STAPLES: Toronto sportswriters predict doom for Connor McDavid in Edmonton

STAPLES: McDavid, Draisaitl, Tippett, Oilers get roasted by NBC’s Pierre McGuire

LEAVINS: Player grades for triple-overtime loss to Jets

McCURDY: Oilers blow lead in epic fashion in Game 3 — player grades

Follow me on Twitter @BruceMcCurdy

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